Anticipatory action refers to actions taken to reduce the humanitarian impacts of a forecast hazard before it occurs, or before its most acute impacts are felt. The decision to act is based on a forecast, or collective risk analysis, of when, where and how the event will unfold (IFRC 2020).

Anticipatory action is a humanitarian approach that aims to save lives and livelihoods and reduce losses and suffering. It takes different forms and happens on a range of scales, depending on the context in which people live, the type of hazard(s) they are facing, and the available forecasts and data for that hazard. Depending on the type of hazard and forecasts available, anticipatory action can be carried out well ahead of the shock (for slower onset events) or just before the impacts fully take hold (for more rapid-onset events).

Anticipatory action is part of the disaster risk management cycle. It systematically links early warnings to early action. Acting before a hazard becomes a disaster helps to build people’s resilience to future shocks and eases the pressure on strained humanitarian resources. Anticipatory action is not a substitute for longer-term investment in disaster risk reduction; instead, it aims to strengthen people’s capacity to manage risks.

Approach of anticipatory humanitarian action used by Red Cross and Red Crescent. Based on forecast information and risk analysis, FbF releases humanitarian funding for pre-agreed early actions to prevent or mitigate the impact of extreme events. Funds are allocated automatically when a specific threshold (trigger) is reached.

The objective of Anticipatory Action is to empower communities, key stakeholders and PRCS branches to act proactively, aiming to take actions before the hazard’s impact or before the most acute humanitarian impacts of a shock are felt, with the goal of reducing these impacts.

The Pakistan Red Crescent Society (PRCS) is implementing Anticipatory Action with the support of the German Red Cross (GRC) funded by German Federal Foreign Office (GFFO) since October 2021. PRCS has already developed a simplified Early Action Protocol (sEAP) for Kabul River basin through Forecast-based Financing approach connected with dedicated IFRC pool funding Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF). The development of EAP for riverine flooding in Indus River basin is underway. Through these interventions PRCS will be ready to support flood prone communities in 13 districts when specific trigger is reached.

PRCS is coordinating with key stakeholders including Disaster Management Authorities (DMAs) at all levels, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and relevant departments for policy and advocacy, the development of EAPs and readiness for the implementation of these EAPs.

To promote learning, innovation and exchange PRCS support and participate in dialogue platforms at national, regional and global levels.

1. Simplified Early Action Protocol(sEAP) for Kabul River basin, on activation of SEAP early actions can reach up to 37,315 people. For more details click on link: https://adore.ifrc.org/Download.aspx?FileId=721011
2. Pakistan’s 1st National Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Action took place in Islamabad on 19-20 December 2023, with the theme, “Together for Scaling Up Anticipatory Action in Pakistan.” For more details click on link: https://www.anticipation-hub.org/news/pakistan-holds-its-first-national-dialogue-platform-on-anticipatory-action
3. PRCS has integrated FbF into its Strategy 2025-30 under the Disaster Risk Management Program.
4. Training courses and workshops for capacity building of staff and volunteers on AA at all levels. PRCS also established an FbF Technical Working Group.  
5. PRCS is an active member of the National Coordination Forum (NCF) on Anticipatory Action established by National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
6. PRCS Page on Anticipation Hub: https://www.anticipation-hub.org/experience/anticipatory-action-in-the-world/pakistan/forecast-based-financing-in-pakistan

The AHDRR program represents a significant stride towards proactive disaster risk reduction in Pakistan, fostering a collaborative approach to safeguarding lives and livelihoods through anticipation and early action.